This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a

In the discussion, Gurkenglas said,

> Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right?

> TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes

> TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally

> From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.

Yet at the same time, a whale keeps buying YES.

This question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 4, 8:31pm: To clarify, TheSkeward is the current administrator.

Mar 4, 8:44pm: Ignore the previous clarification. It was redundant.

Mar 5, 10:34pm: If there's a dispute, we'll use the numbers from the API to settle this question. I will not round numbers. If the question's at 14.9% for 12 hours, that will count too.

Judged by the size of pool, will this market have a total of M$ 20,000 invested in it by 11:59 pm EST on March 11th?

The market will stay open until March 11th. #meta #shortterm #fun

Feb 23, 10:28am: This market will not resolve until it closes. I'll resolve based on the pool size at close since that is simplest to determine. So if it is over or equal to $20,000 at close then the market will resolve to YES. If it is below $20,000 at close, then it will resolve to NO.

Close date updated to 2022-03-11 11:59 pm

Feb 23, 10:45am: @LeonardoTaglialegne Thanks!

Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022.
#ManifoldMarkets #crypto

This market resolves to "Yes" if we end up dating (using the words relationship, partner, or 'we are dating') before June 1. So, a few tentative get-to-know-you hangouts wouldn't count. She's a bit cooler than me, a bit kinder, and a bit older.

Feb 14, 12:54pm: More details: she is 31, I'm 27 (m). We attend the same school as grad students.

Feb 14, 12:54pm: Update: The market will be voided if she finds out about it.

Feb 14, 1:35pm: I am currently obsessed with her

Feb 14, 2:52pm: She is on a Valentine's date with another guy today...

Feb 14, 2:47pm: ... But we are going on a hike on Wednesday

Feb 14, 3:44pm: correct timestamp for the last comment

Feb 14, 6:08pm: she's been slow to respond to my last few messages (6+ hours), but each have been enthusiastic with at least 1 emoji

Feb 14, 6:08pm: her date is probably starting right around now

Feb 14, 7:38pm: we both eat pizza along the outer edge

Feb 15, 7:07am: pundits predict a volatile day of mid market stress eating

Feb 15, 1:48pm: no messages exchanged today

Feb 15, 5:53pm: Broke the silence with a message. Will probably regret that later.

Feb 15, 5:54pm: response includes the phrase "I'm so confused."

Feb 16, 8:25am: we met a few months ago when I was in a relationship. Apparently she had been crushing on me

Feb 16, 1:12pm: investors anxiously await results of imminent hike + talk

Feb 16, 3:05pm: she let me know that she has actually been seeing the Valentines guy for a while off and on. It was going too quickly after we first met so she broke it off, and now they are back together. That appears to be that.

Feb 16, 3:30pm: we agreed that the problem is timing and she alluded to something happening down the road if it didn't work out with her guy. So I won't close the market, but I can't say it's looking good.

Feb 16, 6:29pm: I feel

Feb 23, 9:18am: sent her a last ditch love-email. That can't be a good sign

Feb 23, 7:09pm: a different girl who I was really into a few months ago, one of the most attractive, smart, and kind people I know, confessed feelings for me to my sister. A few weeks ago I would have felt so much excitement, but right now only one person is on my mind

Feb 24, 12:19pm: She responded to my email with a very thoughtful and kind let-down. So I'm on to other pastures.

Feb 24, 6:04pm: We texted for most of today. I'm not going to pursue her, but I'm also not going to resolve the market until June. The world works in mysterious ways!

To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).

There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve

Em of the Night

Austin

Merlaux

Don’t care about name; use “₥” as the symbol.

CompmanJX3

PeterBorah

Mr Stone

Luke W

Elena

Answer will be my favorite response of all responses above 25%.
Market will actually close at a random time between 3/14/2022 and 3/19/2022

This market resolves to YES if John Beshir is still in the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets leaderboard, sorted by total profits. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 8, 8:57pm: I will check the leaderboard at the time indicated in the title of this question. If he drops from the leaderboard and gets back on it, it will still resolve to YES.

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